The news desk
Rates and the Fed
Fed decisions, Treasury yields and mortgage rates, and what they do to the cost of buying and refinancing.
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Inflation by the Fed's own gauge climbs to 3.6%, and real incomes fall
The PCE price index rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August; core PCE reached 3.1%. Real disposable income fell 0.3% and the saving rate slipped to 3.8%.
The Tzvi LLC read: Tenants are paying more with less, and a December cut looks further away than the bond market hoped, so an LLC renewing a rate cap should price it assuming no relief.
Primary source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026 · Checked Nov 2, 2026
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The 30-year mortgage rate falls to 7.24%, its lowest level of October
Freddie Mac’s 30-year average fell to 7.24% from 7.32% a week earlier, and the 15-year fell to 6.60%; a year ago the 30-year sat at 6.17%. On a $400,000 loan, this week’s rate saves about $21 a month against last week and still costs about $284 a month more than a year ago.
The Tzvi LLC read: A rental bought at today's rate has to work on rent alone, because a refinance that rescues the numbers is not in sight.
Primary source: Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey · Checked Nov 2, 2026
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The economy grew at a 3.4% pace in the third quarter, faster than the spring
Real GDP rose at a 3.4% annual rate, up from 2.2% in the second quarter; the second estimate arrives November 25.
The Tzvi LLC read: Strong growth plus 3.6% inflation is the mix that keeps the Fed leaning toward hikes, which is why the two October dissents matter for anyone carrying floating-rate debt.
Primary source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP advance estimate, third quarter 2026 · Checked Nov 2, 2026
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The Fed holds at 3.75% to 4%, with two officials dissenting in favor of another hike
The FOMC left rates unchanged in a 10 to 2 vote; Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted a quarter-point increase.
The Tzvi LLC read: With the dissents on the hawkish side, borrowers should not underwrite near-term relief on floating-rate debt.
Primary source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, October 28, 2026 · Checked Oct 29, 2026
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September consumer prices jump 0.6% and annual inflation reaches 3.7%
The BLS reported energy up 20.4% over the year, core CPI up 2.6% and shelter up 3.2%.
The Tzvi LLC read: A hotter print three weeks after a hike kept a second hike on the table and long-term rates above 5%, and the 10-year is what a permanent loan on a rental gets priced from.
Primary source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI release for September 2026 · Checked Oct 29, 2026
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The 30-year mortgage rate reaches 7.40%, after crossing 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, up from 7.03% on September 24, before it eased to 7.32% on October 22.
The Tzvi LLC read: Higher residential rates thin the buyer pool for fix-and-flip exits and push DSCR loan pricing on rentals up with them.
Primary source: Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey · Checked Oct 29, 2026
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The 10-year Treasury yield climbs above 5.3%, its highest level since 2002
The benchmark yield first crossed 5% in mid-September and pushed above 5.3% in early October, with the 30-year bond near 5.70%, before closing at 5.05% on October 28.
The Tzvi LLC read: Cap rates and permanent loan pricing key off the 10-year, so this is the number that resets acquisition math and refinance proceeds.
Reported by: Forbes · Checked Oct 29, 2026
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The Fed raises rates a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, its first hike since July 2023
The FOMC voted 12 to 0 to lift the federal funds target range, saying inflation remains elevated.
The Tzvi LLC read: Any LLC carrying a SOFR or prime-based loan saw its interest cost rise the next day, and rate caps bought on the assumption of cuts now matter.
Primary source: Federal Reserve, FOMC statement, September 16, 2026 · Checked Oct 29, 2026
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August consumer prices rise 3.4% from a year earlier as gasoline jumps 27%
Headline CPI rose 0.4% for the month and core CPI 2.4% over the year, while energy was up 16.3% from a year earlier.
The Tzvi LLC read: Energy-driven inflation is what pushed the Fed toward a hike, and it fed straight into mortgage and floating-rate loan costs.
Reported by: US Inflation Calculator, summarizing the BLS release · Checked Oct 29, 2026
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Fed Chair Warsh tells Jackson Hole the focus is on prices, opening the door to a hike
In his first Jackson Hole keynote as chair, Kevin Warsh called the 2% target fixed, noted 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7% and said that if underlying inflation is not clearly falling, the Fed has work to do.
The Tzvi LLC read: For anyone underwriting a 2026 or 2027 refinance, this was the moment the rate-cut assumption stopped being safe.
Primary source: Federal Reserve Board, Chairman Warsh's keynote remarks · Checked Oct 29, 2026
Briefs summarize reporting and official releases in our own words. "Primary source" means the agency, court or company itself; "Reported by" means a news outlet, attributed. Education only; nothing here is legal, tax or investment advice.
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